*09-15.04.2006
Join Democracy for Burma Alliance
Long March Ahead
People say that 2006 is a very critical year for us. Some of us are even saying that we will fight a decisive battle this year.
But how much and in which way 2006 is critical for us? Will there be a decisive battle this year really? And after that decisive battle who will come out as winners?
There is a good possibility that we, democracy activists will be the winners of this years decisive battle. Bush and Rice and many a high-ranking American politicians are calling for tougher actions on Burma. ASEAN is also putting pressure on Burma. UN will probably formally discuss Burma’s case in Security Council this year. Civil servants in Burma are very unhappy with their military government, as they are transferred, by force, to the unfinished new capital Kyet Pyay (Pyinmanar Nay-Pyi-daw). National League for Democracy has made a smart political move by wisely offering some compromises for national reconciliation. So there will be a people’s up-rising this year, and under the leadership of NLD and with the intervention from outside world, we will get democracy this year. So we hope.
So we have to explore possibilities and impossibilities.
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In 1988 under socialist government - There was no opposition party. - There was no political leader. - Student leaders at that time could secretly but freely organize their student movements inside Burma. - There was more media freedom; famous comedians like Zar-ga-nar could make jokes on the government, and entertainment groups in water festivals could also mock government - There was no media campaign by Burmese activists in exile. - 8.8.88 uprising happened without any outside help - There was no sanction. - There was no hope of UNSC intervention. - US sent their navy ships into Burmese territorial waters during 1988 uprisings - There was no rival government. - There was no student army. - Ethnic forces were very strong at that time - Liberated areas were larger, Thai & India were very supportive to freedom fighters in our liberated areas. - Demonetization of Kyats currencies 1987 and 1988 led to people’s discontent and protests. - The socialist government at that time was a civilian one.
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Now in 2006 under military regime - We have NLD and other parties; but there is no room for political activities inside Burma for any political party. - We have our leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but she is currently in a total incommunicado detention. - Most of the Student leaders are in exile, and the leaders remaining inside are under close watch by secret police. - Burma’s cause nowadays enjoy better international media exposure, But SPDC is more media savvy than its predecessor socialist regime. SPDC mouthpiece newspapers are smarter now than ever before. - We are doing very effective media campaigns against SPDC these days. But SPDC has nurtured their own supporters in the west_ some businessmen, academics and ex-diplomats with business interests in Burma. - We have more interest and support from western world now. But SPDC has their own friends in China, Russia and India, etc. - Now we have sanctions on SPDC. But the problem is they do not care much about sanctions as they have drugs and oil & gas. - Now we can hope for UNSC intervention. But again, China and Russia can become obstacles in UNSC. - US support is steadfast. We can hope US will intervene if there is a massive people’s uprising and the peaceful uprising is crushed down violently by military regime. - We have rival government, NCGUB. But some Burmese democracy activists and a lot of ethnic organizations have been reluctant to unite under NCGUB leadership. - We now have a student army, ABSDF. But, on the other hand, SPDC army has grown far bigger and stronger than ever before. - Now many ethnic forces have gone into cease-fire with SPDC. The remaining major ethnic forces, KNU, SSA are a bit weaker now. -Liberated Areas are smaller now. And Thai & India are collaborating with SPDC. - People discontent now with chaotic healthcare and education systems, sky high inflations. The only question is if they will come out onto streets to protest. - Every body knows how ruthless current military regime is. |
So things are different this time. There is a possibility that we might win in 2006. If so, that’s good, really great!
But if not, there is a long march over an uphill journey and through a very difficult terrain, waiting ahead for us.
After 2006, the regime will eliminate NLD and exterminate all ethnic resistant fighters, and will even attempt something nasty to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. And they will practice isolationism, neglecting international pressure and forming a pack with other like-minded authoritanian regimes of China, Russia, Cuba, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea, etc. And they will not care much about western sanctions, as long as they are getting billion dollars revenue from drug-trade and gas & oil fields.
So, if we do not win in 2006, there definitely will be a very long march ahead for us.
Tayza Thuria
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